Coffee heat rising

Recession moves in to the front yard

Dave’s Used Car Lot, Marina, and Weed Arboretum has been foreclosed. Yesterday evening the neighbor behind me, whose address is the same as Dave’s except it ends in “Lane” instead of “Way,” showed up at the door with a foreclosure notice that had been plastered on her door. She was shaken up, because at first she thought it applied to her house and was afraid she’d been the victim of a scammer. But on closer inspection we saw that it had been delivered to the wrong address and was intended for David.

My feelings about that are mixed. On the one hand, I’ll be happy to see the end of Dave’s proprietorship. On the other, I don’t look forward to another rental across the street! Maybe the new tenants can band together with Biker Boob and open an entire chain of shade-tree mechanic’s garages. And I feel bad for Dave: though there are times when I’d like to kick him in the shins, he is a sweet-natured and quiet man. Besides, given how overgrown my front yard has become what with the thick screen of shrubbery designed to block the view of the Weed Arboretum, I can’t be calling his kettle black.

Well, if we’re lucky, maybe we’ll get somebody who wants to live in the property and actually will take care of it. Not likely, though: the people who bought my old house after La Viajera defaulted are letting it go to pot. Often folks don’t realize how much it costs to maintain an aging tract house, and they just can’t afford to keep it up.

Dave owes $320,000 on a house that couldn’t have cost him more than $80,000 or $100,000. He’s been in the neighborhood at least as long as I have, and I paid an even hundred grand for my first house here. LOL! I guess it explains why he never goes to work: he’s been living on the equity!

M’hijito dropped by last night. We considered the possibility of trying to buy the place and either moving him and his roommate in there or renting it out. It’s really a wreck, though. The place has always been a disaster area—it was run down long before the Bubble came along. I’m afraid the cost of making it livable would be more than we can sustain.

Here’s how it looked when I moved in, back in 2004. Nice plywood in the front window, eh? Satan, the previous owner of my house, had quietly paid David to store the boat off the lot while the house was on the market, so it’s not visible here among the trailers and the vehicles, plus the junker car and the flatbed trailer full of ORVs are missing. Satan probably arranged to have the yard cleaned up, too: it hasn’t looked that good since he and Proserpine moved out and I moved in. The boat in the photo at the top of this post is a new model; he replaced the old one, which was nonfunctional and faded blue, with a nearly identical one in red.

M’hijito is beginning to worry that we won’t be able to turn over the Investment House before the 15-year period that we have to pay off the 30/15 loan runs, and if that happens, we won’t be able to refinance. That’s a bridge we’ll have to cross when we come to it, though. If we sell now, we’ll just break even; in fact, we might sell at a loss. Fifteen years is a long time. While it’s true that the D word is being bandied about in high places, if the world economy goes into a depression, we may have a shot at coming out of it in less than 15 years. Maybe not: as someone pointed out, the Dark Ages was actually an economic depression. But things move a bit faster these days….

LOL! Forget that!

Well, La Maya managed to get into the County Recorder’s site and extract some information about the cute little Willo house. Taxes not only are NOT lower on a house and lot signficantly smaller than mine, they’re higher: $2,641. Good lord. I almost fainted when I got this year’s bill for $2,050!

Even if the utility bills are lower (they won’t be: the house is in a district served by one of priciest utility companies in the country, which charges extravagant amounts per KwH to fund its white elephant of a nuclear plant), I certainly can’t afford that. So…looks like it’s gunna be Sun City for me. Day-um!

Cute little house

Still thinking about the adorable little house I saw in the downtown historic district. It’s a lot smaller than my house: more than the equivalent of two bedrooms smaller. On the other hand, my house is one or two bedrooms too large. Contemplating retirement, I’ve thought I need a smaller place, and two bedrooms would do. In addition, it has what appears to be an intact garage. Many homeowners in that area insulate and drywall the old garage, fill in the doorway with a regular door and a window, add a heat pump, and call it a “guest cottage.” This hugely jacks up the property value, because it adds about 300 or 350 square feet to the livable space. Put a bathroom and a kitchenette in there, and you can get $500 or $600 a month in rent, or have a nice place to put up visiting friends and relatives.

On the other hand, moving is a big expense: do I really want to blow off what I’ve put into this house (which is very pleasant, the neighborhood and pending train-track construction notwithstanding) to move to a smaller place?

What’s the worst that could happen?

I move to Willo and…
…the house and moving expenses are more than I can afford; the house is no cheaper to maintain. I’m forced to move to an apartment or Sun City.

I stay here and…
…the house is more than I can afford, I’m forced to move to an apartment or to Sun City. Property values stay static or drop, so I can’t get into a place where I want to live.

Kinda looks like a wash, doesn’t it? Is it wishful thinking, or are there really more advantages (and fewer disadvantages) to moving than to staying?

To move or not to move…and if so, where?

Yesterday’s confirmation of my suspicion that I won’t be able afford to stay in my home after I retire is disturbing. I will have to move someplace cheaper to operate. And if I need to carry a mortgage to do it, I’d better find a place sooner than later. No one will lend a house-sized chunk of money to an old lady trying to live on Social Security.

If I’m going to stay in the Phoenix area and not live in a three-story walk-up, there are only two choices: Sun City or a foreclosure in the city’s gentrified core. The city stands down off the property taxes in the historic district (the locals consider a house that’s 50 years old to be “historic,” a bit of a joke but hey…it’s Arizona). Right now three or four such shacks are on the market.

The historic area known as “Willo,” part of the larger Encanto district, is exceptionally well maintained and pretty: gentrified with a vengeance. My ex- and I lived there for 15 years. We moved after our son got big enough to play outdoors—surrounded with a blighted area boasting the highest per-capita drug use in the city, Encanto is infested with homeless mentally ill and dangerous criminals. We felt it was unsafe to let him play outside, particularly after one of the neighbors (yea verily: an elderly woman) was killed by an ax murderer. A woman living alone down there really needs a large dog. But (sigh) I suppose that can be arranged.

I saw two derelicts on Third Avenue as I drove down into the area this afternoon. One of them was so spaced, the poor guy, he was stumbling up the middle of the street. On the other hand, when I stopped to look at one of the vacant repo houses, I chatted with a yard crew. Their foreman said his company cleaned up and did handyman work for the bank that now owns the place. They were up on the roof the other day replacing parts in the air conditioner when two squad cars full of cops showed up and, pistols drawn, ordered them to explain themselves.

So that would mean the cops are showing up, something they rarely bothered with in the past. I remember the time The Walker, a mentally retarded gentleman who used to walk around and around the neighborhood, oblivious to the traffic on Third and Fifth avenues, from early in the morning when the settlement house tossed him out to evening when he could go back to bed. One hot day he passed out on my neighbor Chuck’s lawn. Chuck called 911 to get an ambulance for him, and the despatcher said—I kid you not!—”Don’t worry, he’ll sleep it off.”

They figured the old guy was a drunk, and they didn’t give a damn that drunks were passing out on people’s lawns. Chuck had to call the city, raise Hell, and put a block under it to get somebody to come take care of the man.

On the Night of the Screaming, it was an hour before the cops showed up. They almost arrested my husband, who appeared, coming home from a firm meeting, about the time a squad car surfaced. This was the time a rapist tried to come in the side door, having got himself all hot and bothered after he watched me, through a window, doing some calisthenics. I went to another door, threw it open, and started screaming “Fire!” LOL…didn’t know I even could scream that loud.

Anyway, the prospect of watching a house burn down brought the neighbors out, which scared our boy off. They watched him lam out of there on a bicycle.

That’s the neighborhood I’m planning to move back into. On the other hand, the mayor lives there now. That would explain the improved police presence. The city has long been anxious to gentrify that area, and these days people with lots of money have moved in. So…times may have changed in Encanto.

Because of the area’s exceptional charm (it’s actually the only charming district in the entire Valley—otherwise, all the housing is ticky-tacky sprawl, except for the huge and hugely expensive 1950s ranch houses of North Central), prices ran up very fast and stayed up, long before the Bubble. In 1968, three months after we moved into our very beautiful Santa Barbara-style house, a Realtor came to my door and offered $100,000 for it. We had just paid $33,000. Twenty years later, after I Ieft the marriage, I considered moving back into the area, but by then prices were utterly out of the question.

No more. The bust has brought prices for some very sweet little places back down under $400,000. If I can get three and a quarter for mine, I probably can afford as much as $370,000.

Right now an exceptionally pretty small house, shown above, is on the market for $365,000; probably the price can be negotiated down. It’s pretty tiny—1,488 square feet, compared to the 1,860 in my present hovel—but it has three (minuscule) bedrooms, an office, and, a valuable rarity in that neighborhood, an actual garage with a garage door! And a pool, freshly replastered. The roof looks new. The house has a new HVAC system…very big, indeed. The kitchen has been remodeled; the distressed owners left a restaurant-style gas stove and a big, brand-new refrigerator. Strangely, they built an outdoor fireplace on the far side of the pool, in a space too small for outdoor furniture; but it’s atmospheric, I suppose.

Three hundred sixty-five grand is cheap for that area. That’s $245 a square foot. Just down the road, on the street where our babysitters used to live, someone is trying to get $850,000 for this little manse: at 2,520 square feet, that comes to $337.30 a square foot. Now I will say, it’s a lot more elegant inside and out; it has a huge, fancified kitchen, the most stylish of all possible swimming pools, and a large, swell bathroom with a whirlpool tub. And no place to park your car. One extracts 2,520 feet from those places by converting the garage into a “guest house” (read “impossible to air-condition studio”).

Another place around the corner from where we used to live is on the market for $525,000. The seller boasts that the taxes are $1,780, significantly less than I’m paying on a house worth something around $300,000. Cute little fellow, isn’t it? It has a nice big kitchen, an office with handsome built-ins, big bright rooms, and the original tiling in the bathrooms, very attractive. At $228.25 a square foot, you get 2,300 allegedly livable square feet, again because the garage has been converted and you have no place to park your car. Understand, there’s no neighborhood in Phoenix where you can safely leave your car outside, and this particular high-crime area is not a place where you would want to leave your car sitting en plein air all night long. One of our neighbors popped out of her home one morning, jumped in her car to go to work, started to back out the driveway, and, turning around to watch where she was steering, found a derelict sleeping in the back seat. When she got her husband to evict the uninvited tenant, the man was indignant to have been awakened at such a ridiculously early hour.

The house I saw where I stopped to talk with the workmen was on the market for $270,000, having failed to sell at auction a week or so ago. The reason for that, I expect, is that it backs onto the commercial strip facing McDowell, a busy and loud main drag, so that the view from the backyard is the backside of some aged, run-down commercial buildings and their gigantic garbage bins. Needless to say, few people are willing to buy a fixer-upper of a repo for anything like what the bank wants to get for that thing. At any rate, while we were chatting I noticed a pile of broken car window glass in the street. The crew’s super said the car had been broken into while they were off at lunch. So: a garage is a nonnegotiable, as far as I’m concerned.

All these nervous-making issues notwithstanding, the area has many things to recommend it:

  • An amazing esprit de corps exists among the neighbors. People live there because they love the old houses and they love living in the central part of the city. They’re vital, young, and generally quite friendly. When we lived there, we knew and socialized with neighbors for three blocks around; in my present house, I haven’t exchanged more than 200 words with any of the neighbors except for La Maya and a lady down the street who has a dog about Cassie’s size.
  • The neighbors keep the houses up. Every yard is perfectly groomed. No one looks out her window to see anything like Dave’s Used Car Lot, Marina, and Weed Arboretum.
  • It is a lot closer to the Great Desert University than where I’m living. I could get to work in ten minutes flat.
  • The city has fostered a midtown cultural and arts district. The neighborhood is within walking distance of the main city library and two vibrant museums.
  • The train will go right up Central Avenue, four blocks from the coveted house. It will carry riders downtown and let them off within walking distance of the theater district, making it possible to enjoy plays and music without having to pay $10 or $15 to park your car for a couple of hours. There’s a baseball stadium downtown, too, for those who enjoy athletic events and can afford to watch them.
  • My friend VickyC lives in the general area.
  • Once the bust is over, property values can go nowhere but up.
  • Taxes are kept low (although nothing can stop the city and county from rescinding the special tax district).
  • It’s within walking distance of Phoenix College, where in my dotage I undoubtedly can pick up some classes to teach, to the tune of a couple thousand bucks a semester. This would be an easy way to pick up some pin money. Since the college has a writing program, I’m sure I can get hired to teach something less torturous than freshman comp.

The other possibility is to move to Sun City.

The biggest advantage of Sun City is price: it is extremely cheap to live out there. SDXB’s taxes are half of what I pay, and when he moved his homeowner’s and car insurance dropped to a third of what he was paying here. It also is very quiet and relatively safe—the crime rate is low, and since the notorious Sheriff Joe Arpaio knows that elderly right-wingers (which describes most of the populace) will keep him in office, he provides prompt and effective police coverage. The houses are built for old folks: many are intelligently designed, and they have lots of storage. Most have double garages. There are two big hospitals and several life-care communities, amenities one needs to think about as one ages.

For $300,000, for example, you can buy this place. Truth to tell, it’s a better house than anything in the price range in Encanto. It’s bigger, it’s newer, it’s in a safer area, it has an updated kitchen and interior, and it backs onto a golf course. Similar houses can be had for lots less: most of the sellers are either old folks who have been carted off to a nursing home or out-of-state heirs, both sets that fall into the “distressed” category. Houses are not selling in Sun City, with the result that every second shack is on the market. For $290,000, I could buy a place on a fake lake, with its own private dock.

And lo and behold, here’s a house with a pool, right on the golf course, with a kitchen best described as vast: it appears to be SDXB’s model, which is a nice house. It’s on the market for $259,900. I expect I could stand to live in this place.

So…why would I even consider spending $65,000 or $100,000 more to live in a smaller house in the noisy, crime-ridden heart of a big city?

Why, indeed?

Well, for starters, because it is Sun City.

  • It’s a ghetto for the elderly. I’m a big-city girl. If I’m going to live in a small town, I will move to a real small town, not a “planned community” that plans out the sound of children playing.
  • My politics lean to the left. Most elders in this part of the country lean to the right. Chances of finding sympatico friends are almost nil.
  • Sun City is full of couples. It’s difficult enough to make new friends when you’re old. But when you’re a single old person in a culture where people don’t care to have a fifth wheel along, it’s almost impossible.
  • Watching old movies does not strike me as a cultural event.
  • I can’t think of anything more depressing than watching the few friends I would manage to find grow more and more decrepit. While I enjoy friends my age, I also crave the acquaintance of younger people.
  • It’s way, way too far away from the university. If I can, I intend to keep my job another two to seven years. I wouldn’t want to make that commute every day for two weeks, much less for seven years!
  • My son hates it and has said he will not drive out there to see me.
  • The ‘burbs have moved west and surrounded the Sun Cities. As a result, the entire area is crowded, hectic, and crazy-making.
  • The Sun Cities themselves are’burbs: vast tracts of almost identical houses turned out of a limited number of cookie-cutter molds. They are ugly, dreary, and monotonous.
  • When you use the term “quiet” about Sun City, you mean the silence of the mausoleum.

So, while I’d love to turn a $40,000 profit on the sale of my house, I don’t think I’d like the trade-off. A smaller house in the central city would be less work for me to take care of and, with the taxes controlled and fewer square feet to air-condition, would cost less to operate. While I wouldn’t come away with the extra money I need to pad my retirement savings, expenses at least might be manageable.

It’s worth looking into.

Foreclosure update from the deep Southwest: News is mixed

In June, more than 40% of the 7,840 home sales in the Phoenix area were purchases of foreclosures, says Arizona State University’s Morrison School of Management. Median price of the foreclosed properties was $169,890, compared to a median price of $218,000.

A year ago, the median price on foreclosures was $225,900; for traditionally marketed houses it was $265,000. Interestingly, foreclosed homes on average are significantly smaller than traditionally marketed houses: 1,665 square feet for foreclosures, vs. 1,865 for the others.

Signs of Activity

These drops in value are stimulating interest among investors and people who want to buy homes to live in them, especially in the downscale part of the market. According to the researchers, buyers expect that prices will rise over the next few years. Although the slump in home values is not good for many homeowners’ pocketbooks-especially in the outlying suburbs hardest hit by the decline-if the government’s efforts to rescue defaulting homeowners take hold, we may see the market start to turn around as demand for now relatively low-priced properties increases.

Here in the Micromarket

In my neighborhood, which as you know is not the greatest but is centrally located, values are holding fairly high despite several foreclosures. Around the corner, there’s a house that was purchased and cherried out magnificently by a speculator during the Late, Great Bubble. The place was very handsome, with new everything, an emerald-green lawn, and an elegant fountain in front. The investor asked something over $400,000 when he sold at the height of the boom.

I don’t know whether the house was in foreclosure when it went back on the market, but it certainly looks like a foreclosure: the lawn is dead, the fountain was ripped out, its raw concrete pad left among the weeds, and the whole atmosphere suggests abandonment.

That house just sold for $340,000, a good price for a place in this aging neighborhood, a block away from a huge, noisy, dirty construction project just getting under way, which will rip out an entire row of homes along the main drag, bring endless chaos, and drag on for at least four years. It’s $108,000 more than I paid for my house, also cherried out and a reasonably safe distance from the pending railroad project.

Houses that are not in foreclosure are, predictably, doing even better: a recent sale on my street brought $395,000. Remember: this is a neighborhood adjoining two menacing slums, where you don’t put your kids in the public school unless they know how to use a knife or a club and you don’t care whether they ever learn to read.

And as for the Investment House…

Down at the M’hijito’s, a place a few doors away just sold for $35,000 more than we paid for our investment scheme. The houses there are all essentially identical, his being one of the area’s first true cookie-cutter neighborhoods.

Location, Location, Location

Evidently how a house’s value fares has to do with where the house stands, especially given the flap over gas prices. Even in less than upscale central-city areas, prices are holding fairly well, relative to what is happening in other parts of the Valley.

If you’re buying, stick to centrally located middle-class or gang-free working-class neighborhoods. Those areas will again boom when the real estate market recovers, especially if gas stays high and cities are forced to build decent public transport systems.

Real Estate: Is now the time to buy?

Yesterday I came very, very close to making an offer on a house in the tonier part of our neighborhood. The seller, an aged widow who has moved out of state, is offering a vintage 1957 three-bedroom ranch house in an area of $600,000 houses for just$400,000. My agent friend discovered from the seller’s agent that she would entertain not only a low-ball offer but also a contingency offer!

So, we concocted a scheme whereby I would offer $350,000 for that house and then try to get enough from my house that I would walk with $325,000, leaving me with a very small mortgage and enough room to borrow an extra $30,000 for fix-up.

For a brief, shimmering moment, it almost looked doable. Then sanity crept in: “Hey,” said I, “maybe we should run the comps in that subdivision before we present this offer to the guy.”

Oh. Yeah! Maybe so.

In recent memory only three comparable nearby houses have sold. One, a similar model but smack on Seventh Avenue, a hectic main drag, was purchased for $600,000 but just sold, in a short sale, for (hang on to your hats, dear readers) $261,000. Another went on the market FOUR HUNDRED DAYS AGO at $600,000. The seller lowered the price steadily in small increments, but only very recently did the house go under contract-after the price dropped to $450,000. No idea what the contract price actually is, since it has yet to be published.

Under those circumstances, $400,000-or even $350,000 or some compromise between those two prices-doesn’t seem like such a bargain for a fixer-upper, nice neighborhood or not. Add to that the fact that the most basic fix-up would run around $30,000 but still would fall far short of the $60,000 to $100,000 the house needs to bring it up to par with its neighbors.

Meanwhile, here in the low-rent district price drops have been nothing like that. Au contraire.

La Viajera, who bought my last house from me and then defaulted, actually ended up with the bank accepting a short sale of $261,000. She bought the house from me, four years ago, for $211,000, then refinanced to take money out of it as the make-believe value ballooned. That is a growth in value—as in “a house is worth what someone will pay for it”—of more than 5.5% a year. During a period when real estate values across the nation are dropping!

The average actual sale price in my tract is $271,000. My house is slightly above average in quality, with a pool, a new roof, four new skylights, lush xeriscapic landscaping, a watering system, an extra-large lot, new double-paned windows, a deck and a covered patio, renovated kitchen and bathrooms, new flooring throughout, and a custom paint job. The most realistic estimated sale price is about $300,000. I paid $235,000 for it: that’s an increase of a little under 6.5% a year.

It appears to be a matter of location, location, location. Some parts of the city have been very hard-hit by the real estate recession, particularly the brand-new instant “communities” recently tossed up on the far outlying fringes. Closer-in areas are also suffering: at our city councilman’s regular breakfast meeting with constituents today, we learned that 800 houses have been abandoned in our (overall pretty downscale) district alone. But in this immediate neighborhood, to my knowledge we’ve had two actual evictions and repossessions (one of which is presently undergoing a major renovation) and three short sales. That’s a lot for a small area, but it’s far from every second or third house, and in this immediate development, the losers apparently haven’t much affected property values.

Think of that. It pays to be in a centrally located lower-middle-class neighborhood.