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Economy Is Politics: Arizona’s politico-economic disaster

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Bet you thought I was exaggerating when I described the shenanigans going on down at the state house. Truth to tell, though, that post was barely the half of it: a lazy job of reporting, indeed.

To date, budget shortfalls have gutted higher education in Arizona, trashed K-12 education, closed down state parks, and shut down important segments of the state government. Tens of thousands of state workers and employees of companies that contract to the state have been thrown out of work. Far from showing any concern about these disasters, our legislators persist in a demented campaign to balance the budget on the backs of our children, of our most vulnerable citizens, and of every other resident.

What they are proposing to do is cut state income tax revenues by a half-billion dollars, repeal the $250 million state equalization tax, and inflict a further 5.2 percent cut on our already devastated education system. Health care for low-income children would be cut. Child Protective Services, never the nation’s finest agency of its kind, will be further reduced. Food banks will be cut.

To silence opponents, the legislature’s plan proposes to put the governor’s desired temporary 1 percent sales tax increase to the voters; in the unlikely event that they approve it, the 5 percent education cut will be erased.

The 3 percent flat tax legislators are straining to push through in this budget proposal will cut state revenues by $450 million just as a three-year sales tax hike phases out.

As a clue about what kind of people these are, Arizona Senator Jack Harper has described teachers as “feeding at the public trough,” and he made himself the subject of an ethics complaint when, acting as chairman of the committee of the whole, he “accidentally” shut off all the microphones in the room and then cut off an ongoing debate.

Meanwhile, these nut cases are legalizing dangerous fireworks, banned in Arizona for years because of the horrific risk they pose to the children to whom they are marketed (good idea: the more of the little darlings we can maim and kill, the less we’ll have to pay to educate them!), ending the hard-won domestic partner benefits for state employees, and planning to allow Arizonans to carry concealed weapons without a permit and to carry guns into public buildings and schools. They want to close the Arizona Historical Society (shutting a half-dozen museums and effectively discarding their holdings) and they have withheld $18 million in research funding promised to the Science Foundation Arizona. However, overcoming their distaste for “socialism,” these worthies are applying for $1 million in federal funding to save the state’s debunked, intellectually bankrupt abstinence-only program.

A  million bucks for abstinence-only…these are the same folks who tell us that if you’re poor and your sick child needs expensive medical care, you’re out of luck. See? If you had just abstained, you wouldn’t have had that weakling brat!

Jon Talton, an observer who calls the gang in power the Kookocracy, suggests we allow the fools to have their way. The disastrous result, he thinks, will demonstrate beyond a shadow of a doubt what extreme right-wing dogma means to the individual citizen’s pocketbook, jobs, and quality of life. That’s what it will take—the collapse of the state’s government and economy—to persuade Arizona voters to put the wackos out of office, once and for all.

Maybe so. In the interim, the disaster that will ensue—that is ensuing—will make this state a terrible place to live for a long time to come. Friends are talking about retiring to northern New Mexico. Not a bad idea: once I’m out of work this winter, thanks to the dismantling of higher education, I won’t really have to stay here. I may follow them to Los Alamos, joining the brain drain that’s already under way.

Identity Theft: Three ways to fight it

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A few years ago, SDXB and I learned separately that each of our credit reports said we had lived at an address neither of us had ever heard of, in Tempe, Arizona. Although neither of us was harmed financially, it indicated a type of identity theft known as “application fraud” or “true name fraud.”

It took about a year to get the fake address off my credit records. Once it was expunged, I pretty much forgot about it…until a couple of weeks ago. That was when Costco announced it didn’t have my current address and my membership renewal was overdue. When I went to customer service to pay up, the CSR happened to show me her computer monitor, and what should I discover but that my home address was listed as SDXB’s former address and my business address is now at that same fake address in Tempe!

The appearance of an unfamiliar address on your credit report is one of many possible signs of identity theft. Other warning signs are missing bills, unexplained charges to your accounts, the existence of accounts you didn’t open, denial of credit for no apparent reason, and dunning calls from bill collectors for items you didn’t purchase.

Undoing a mess some crook has made is very difficult. It can take years to persuade creditors and credit reporting agencies that you’ve been a victim of identity theft, and the crime can haunt you for a long time. Thieves have so many ways to steal your private information, many of which you have no control over, that you really can’t prevent it. But you can take a few steps to reduce your risk. I think of them in terms of three strategies:

1. Monitor

You’re entitled to free annual credit reports from each of the three major credit reporting bureaus, Equifax, Experian, and Transunion. Rather than having to go through the hassle of contacting each of these agencies separately, it’s now possible to order credit reports through a single source, annualcreditreport.com. Instead of ordering all three reports at once, take advantage of the federal law by revisiting annualcreditreport.com once every four months, so that you can spread out reports from the three agencies over the course of a year. This will allow you to monitor your credit reports steadily. Watch for any unexplained activity or accounts you don’t recognize.

Also, before you pay a credit card bill, remember to review the statement carefully. Check financial accounts and billing statements each month, looking for charges you didn’t make.

2. Prevent

Limit the number of credit cards you carry around. Keep no more than one or two cards in your wallet.

Pay in cash at restaurants and other establishments where you can’t watch what an employee does with your card after you present it for payment. This eliminates the use of a skimmer, a handheld device thieves use to swipe cards for later download into their own computers.

Don’t use debit cards. If you must, memorize your PIN; don’t carry a note with your PIN in your wallet or purse. Avoid using your birthdate, numbers of your address, sequential numbers, or four digits of your Social Security number as PINs. Never use a debit card for online shopping.

Photocopy your credit and debit cards, front and back, and keep the photocopies in a safe place. This makes it easy to contact issuers if cards are stolen.

Don’t allow anyone to write your credit card number on a check.

Always take credit card receipts with you. Carry them in your wallet or purse, and shred them before discarding.

Carry outgoing snail mail to a USPS post box or postal station. Don’t leave it in your mailbox to be picked up by the postal carrier. To protect financial information sent to you through the mails, install a locking mailbox.

Avoid giving out your Social Security number. Don’t carry a Social Security card or Medicare card on your person. You (or your parents) can photocopy a Medicare card, trim it down to wallet size, and cut out the last four digits of the SSN that appears on it. Take the original the first time you see a doctor; otherwise, store it in a safe place at home.

Opt out of marketing lists for the three credit bureaus, limiting the number of free credit offers sent to you in the mail. When you do get such offers, always shred them or scissor them into tiny pieces before throwing them in the trash. Also register your telephone number with the National Do Not Call List, to further reduce offers from hustlers.

And of course, never respond to phishing e-mails. Remember, a legitimate bank or creditor will not ask you for your account number or Social Security number.

3. Fight back

At the first sign of identity fraud, notifiy all three credit bureaus and place a fraud alert on your account. This is good for 90 days. This step entitles you to a free credit report; get one from each agency and review all three reports carefully.

Report the theft or fraudulent activity to the police in writing, using an identity theft report.

Once you have filed an identity theft report with law enforcement agencies, use that and your evidence of identity theft to extend the credit bureaus’ fraud alert for seven years.

Report the crime to the Federal Trade Commission, using the police report number you got when you filed a police report.

Learn what your rights as an identity theft victim are.

If an identity thief has opened new accounts in your name, contact these creditors immediately. Federal law allows you to block businesses from reporting fraudulent activity to credit reporting agencies; the sample dispute letter available here will come in handy for that purpose.

If the thief has used existing accounts that belong to you, report the fraudulent activity to the creditors. Arrange to close the accounts and have new accounts with new account numbers issused to you.

So…what am I going to do about the Costco situation?

Well, we have a fair idea where this came from: only one person could connect SDXB and me in quite that way (the phony entry showed my legal first name, which I don’t use socially; few people who knew the two of us as a couple know my real name). At the time the spurious address popped up in our credit reports, this person was engaged in an extramarital affair. We figured she and the boyfriend had forged driver’s licenses in our names so they could rent themselves a love nest.

More recently, the same someone, who has been in deep financial trouble for quite some time, likely ran out of cash about the time her Costco membership lapsed. So she dug out the fake ID, presented herself as me, and said she’d lost her card. If she went in and asked for a new card in my name, she might have been asked for an address. SDXB’s old street address was at the same number as my new street address; the only difference is that one house is on Erewhon Road and the other is on Erewhon Place. So if she gave his old address as “hers”/mine, it would be credible.

I guess what I will do is cancel my Costco membership. Then we’ll have M’hijito buy a new membership in his name, with me on his account as a secondary card holder. This will be a hassle, because they’ll have to issue a new Costco American Express card with a new account number.

But since she hasn’t done anything (so far) that’s cost me any money or damaged my credit rating, maybe I’ll just let it ride and keep a close eye on the credit reports. Who cares if she gets into Costco for free?

Microbudgeting: A new refinement

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Expense after crazy expense keeps pouring in. I’m having a heck of a time staying on budget, not good during the summer when power and water costs run very high. My microbudgeting scheme, whereby I break a month’s budget into four roughly week-long periods, is feeling the strain. The ticket for blowing through a photo-speed trap at 45 mph on a seven-lane highway threatened to break the camel’s back. Faced with a week without enough cash left to buy groceries, I came up with a little strategy that may represent a real, permanent refinement on the microbudget.

Each month-long budget represents an American Express cycle, since I charge almost all my expenses and then pay off the bill at the end of the month. Dedicating $1,200 to cover all costs except regularly recurring monthly bills such as utilities, I allocate $300 to each of four “weeks” within each monthly cycle. If I can stay in the black for all four of these microbudgets, bully for me. If not, I can see at a glance when I’m slipping into the red and put the brakes on before it’s too late. Thus if I overspend in one week and underspend by the same amount or more the following week, I stay on budget without having to pinch pennies for the entire remainder of the month.

Last month I ran up a series of expenses, some of them unexpected: the chair from Pier One, the gutter installation, a forgotten air-conditioning bill, the surprise Costco membership renewal, the pool repair bill, the cost of three locksmith visits after the painter couldn’t figure out how to get the lock off the door he was refinishing, the speed trap ticket, and, more recently, the cost of the bargain landscaping bricks. Last month I ran $253 dollars over budget, and that was without the speed trap ticket, which got charged against this month’s AMEX bill. It was also after The Copyeditor’s Desk reimbursed me over $800 for costs related to the business.

Charging the $188 speed trap gotcha against the first week of this week’s $300 microbudget wouldn’t leave enough to buy gasoline and groceries. Even riding the train to campus, I can’t do without gas: I have to drive to the train stop. And by the end of last month, I needed to replenish the larder.

It occurred to me that if I divided the speed trap ticket by four and spread the cost over the month’s four microbudgets, it might leave enough in each week to buy necessities. The effect is to cut each microbudget by a relatively small amount but leave plenty to live on in each week.

In theory, it should work. In practice, the cost of the bricks (which included $18.68 worth of sales tax) overran the first week’s microbudget by $206.16. However, when that amount is subtracted from this week’s cycle, I’m still left $46.84 in the black.

Forty-six bucks will be enough to buy my lunch and my exiting RA’s (at our office, the boss traditionally buys lunch for an employee who’s leaving…and the university doesn’t reimburse any expenses related to food). Since I restocked food and filled the gas tank last week, I shouldn’t have to buy anything else this week. That will leave $253 to diddle away next week.

What happens if you spread all extraordinary costs over the month, instead of just a single unexpected large bill?

If I divided the $243.68 bill for the bricks in four, to get $60.92, and subtracted that amount from each week’s microbudget, the result would look like this:

The result is much more positive psychologically: now I’m only $23 in the red at the end of the first week, and instead of barely enough to get by in the second week, I’m left with a relatively generous $168 budget.

Is this a more realistic way of looking at monthly spending? It may be. It’s telling us that there’s plenty left for this month in spite of two extraordinary expenses. On the other hand, knowing that might lead the budgeter to relax her spending habits, which really could run the overall budget into the red.

Legislators in moronic game of chicken

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Every year, Arizona’s political leadership engages in a frenzy of grandstanding around the state budget. And every year we’re told to be scared, be very scared, because if the budget isn’t passed by the end of the fiscal year, the state government will shut down.

And every year, up until this one, it’s been so much stürm und drang.

This year, though, things look a little more dire. In the first place, we have an out-of-control legislature filled with right-wing demagogues who, deep in their hearts, would just as soon see the state government shut down. In the second, the state is in the middle of a real-life perfect financial storm; it’s not something a bunch of dunderheads can deal with, as we’re seeing by our elected representatives’ mulish and self-serving actions. And third: we’re not a week or two from the deadline. We’re hours away from it.

What the fools are doing is using the crisis to force through pet schemes that they couldn’t begin to faze past voters or a governor under normal circumstances. They’ve engaged the governor, who herself is very far to the right, in an idiotic showdown, refusing until the last minute to send her a budget they passed over two weeks ago, so as to circumvent her veto. They have no intention of putting their budget before the governor until the 30th, the last possible moment before the government closes down. Their outrageous scheme includes a provision for a flat income tax and a plan to put a one-cent sales tax before the voters, who are guaranteed to turn it down. It’s a pretend budget because it relies on a tax that will not fly, and it’s a doctrinaire end run to pass a regressive income tax that will weigh most heavily on the tens of thousands of Arizonans who have lost their jobs and the hundreds of thousands of Arizonans who live on substandard wages.

While the governor probably is not prohibited from vetoing the budget if it arrives on her desk that late, they’re just daring her to veto it and shut down the government. She actually sued the legislature—a body dominated by members of her own party!—asking the state supreme court to find their actions unconstitutional and force them to get off the dime. The court agreed their actions are unconstitutional but declined to rule that they must play nice.

The characters in the legislature are so extreme, such right-wing wackos, that they make Governor Jan Brewer look moderate. That is quite an accomplishment.

If the budget is not passed by Tuesday, then none of us state employees will get our paychecks on Thursday. And one wonders whether we’ll be covered by health and dental insurance, since our premiums also will be in arrears.

One thing you have to say for Arizona politics: it’s always a spectacle!

The final annual review

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Earlier today I was reminded that I neglected to follow up on the remark, made several days ago, that the Dean had her amanuensis summon me into The Presence.

To my astonishment, what She wanted to do was carry out one…last…annual review. Why, I could not imagine: it’s pretty obvious that at my age I’m not going to get another job, and since the state government, universities included, is crumbling like a chunk of limestone dropped into a bucket of vinegar, it’s especially unlikely that I’ll be finding any appropriate openings at the Great Desert University, the Tucson variant thereof, or the Flagstaff variant therof, any of whose supervisors are allowed to see employee evaluations. It seems like a vast waste of Her time and mine…but whatEVER. She’s the boss.

Hang onto your hats, folks: Her Deanship delivered the single highest performance rating I have ever received in the entire 16 years of my tenure at This Great Institution. She raved about my genius and then generously offered to recommend me for any damnfool thing I imagine I want to apply for.

The performance score she dealt out comes under the heading of Not Possible. Truly: it is amazing.

What, oh what does it mean?

Let’s bear in mind that Deans do not speak plain English. They speak in tongues. This happens because there are a lot of things (as in “most things”) They can’t safely say directly, for more political reasons than any of us (the Deans Themselves included) can count. Like the Delphic Oracle, university Deans speak to you obliquely. They imply. They suggest (subtly). They emphasize. They de-emphasize. Whatever it is that They wish you to understand, They rarely (perhaps never) say it directly. It is not in Their nature to do so.

So, two Sherlockian questions present themselves:

a) Why on earth would Her Deanship spend Her valuable time on what appears to be an utterly futile and pointless exercise?

b) Whence this rave review (after we’ve been becalmed for a full year!), and why?

As for question (a): It’s not outside the realm of possibility that Her Deanship is just being kind. Possibly she wants to send off the underling with good feelings; possibly she truly does feel bad about the demolition of a project that took untold hours and effort by staff, faculty, and administrators to launch and has proven to be utterly unique on the planet.

Could be. Anything’s possible. Nooooo…..

There’s a reason for this. Could be that She knows something’s up. Experience shows She always knows when something’s up. She hinted around that opportunities may arise near the end of our tenure at GDU. Inscribing an ecstatic performance review into the record could put Her in a position to do a targeted hire (oh, no: make it “will” put Her in that position), much simplifying Her life and everyone else’s. It also would help Her to argue effectively for…whatever She expects to have to argue for. And She knows that if I don’t hate Her, I’ll write any proposal She asks me to write. I’m very good at writing proposals. The more entrepreneurial, the better. University presidents love entrepreneurship. For that reason, university vice-presidents, the immediate bosses of Deans, love entrepreneurship.

So, there’s that entertaining possibility. One can always daydream.

It also could be a good review of me (i.e., our office) makes Her look good.

Okay, this brings us to question (b), most succinctly expressed as “HUH?”

I just can’t imagine!

Last summer Her Deanship agreed to let us hire a third RA, giving us a total staff of five. At about the same time, She apparently became aware that our days were numbered. Consequently, She kept putting me off every time I lobbied for more client editors, more work, oh god anything to keep this horde of eager young geniuses occupied. It became painfully clear that She knew something, and that what She knew meant that She dared not commit our services to faculty editors, because She either knew or expected that those services were about to go away. The result of it was that we didn’t have enough work to keep all our staff busy, and the result of that has been that I have foisted every scrap of work my associate editor and I might have done ourselves onto the graduate students. Otherwise, they would have had nothing to do, and they’re here to gain experience and learn from it. As a matter of fact, one of them ended up with precious little to do, much to my chagrin. This has been the worst year our office has ever experienced.

One expects She knows it. And that, with singular circularity, brings us right back to question (a).

Mysterious, isn’t it?

Image: Sherlock Holmes, by Sidney Paget. Public Domain
Wikipedia Commons

Real Estate: Resale market looking better

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Comes a newsletter from the predominant Realtor in our neighborhood, the ineffable Sandy Goodheart. She reports that she just unloaded a house in the neighborhood for a mere $325,000, not bad under the circumstances. Then she adds,

The real estate market has improved dramatically since the first of the year. In January of this year, the inventory of homes for sale stood at about an 11-month supply. A balanced inventory is between four and six months. As of Memorial Day, the inventory stood at a 4.5-month supply.

Of course, what she’s not saying is that the drop in inventory came from foreclosures and short sales. Foreclosures in particular have become so hot that buyers are bidding up prices. La Bethulia missed the boat twice in efforts to buy foreclosed properties in our area; she eventually bought a nice little place near M’hijito’s downtown house, to rent to the two nieces.

That notwithstanding, it’s a good sign. Before the real estate market could even begin to recover from the burst bubble, we needed to clear the flood of foreclosures and houses that couldn’t be sold when lending dried up. If it’s true that the inventory is about back to normal, we should see real estate values begin to appreciate at their former stately but dependable pace.

In fact, that’s about what’s been happening, if you pretend the bubble never occurred. I bought my house right before the inflation started. Assuming Zillow’s machine-generated estimate of its present value is roughly correct, it has appreciated at about 4 percent a year over the past five years.

As for the downtown house, this development means there’s a good chance the credit union’s loan officers are right that by December its value will increase enough to put us rightside-up again. Right now nothing is for sale in that neighborhood. With one possible exception, the foreclosures have sold, and no new ones have come on the market.

The damnable City has decided to turn down the stimulus money that would have completed the light rail line up the main drag past my neighborhood. That’s bad for the area where I’m living (since the city has already ripped out homes facing that road before it decided to suspend construction, trashing nearby property values), but good for the downtown house: it makes close-by light rail a rarer commodity, and that will increase its perceived value…jacking up the real value of neighborhoods near it.

Alors, ça marche.