Who pays people to write headlines like this?
Home Prices in U.S. Showed Signs of Stabilizing in June
Filled with optimism, we dive into the copy:
The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities fell 4.5 percent from June 2010, after a 4.6 percent drop in the 12 months ended May that was the biggest since 2009, the group said today in New York. The median forecast of 31 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a 4.6 percent decline.
Well, that’s cheering. So…where does the bright, sunny headline come from? Anywhere in this story???
Values fell by 0.1 percent in June from the prior month after adjusted for seasonal changes, matching the decrease in May, indicating the deterioration is slowing.
That values continue to drop does not, to my mind, represent “stabilization.” In the next breath, Bloomburg’s reporter adds,
Nonetheless, any recovery in home values is probably years away as foreclosures dump more properties onto the market, while a jobless rate hovering around 9 percent and strict lending rules hurt sales.
Property values have dropped so sharply here that the county is predicting most of us will see a drop in taxes, even though the community college district, which has something like absolute taxing authority, is jacking up the tax rate.
In spite of property tax rates that rank Arizona among the lowest 11 states in that department (and give us a school system to match: yesterday one of my students came up to me, pointed to a word in the syllabus that she couldn’t pronounce, said she’d looked it up in several sources and tried to figure it out, and added that she still could not understand its meaning. The word was urbanization), our doughty citizens continue to call for a Proposition 13, which goes on the ballot here next year.
LOL! The politics here get stupider and stupider. We can say good-bye to our libraries, as well the health and public safety infrastructure. Roads have already gone to Hell, as the city has stopped filling potholes and repairing heat and rain damage. One silver lining: our schools couldn’t get much worse, so I guess we won’t have to bemoan the loss of that service.
Meanwhile, homeownership is going away in this part of the country. My Realtor friends say they’re doing a land-office business. One woman is working 14-hour days, seven days a week. She says she’s selling almost exclusively foreclosures and short sales. One day she closed on seven sales. In one day! Another friend has reinvented himself. He no longer calls himself a real estate salesman. He’s now a “property investment consultant.”
Both say most of their buyers are Canadians, with a few well-heeled American fix-and-flippers. Most of them are buying homes with the specific intention of turning them into rentals.
The rental market here, for obvious reasons, is very hot. We’re told now that even if you’re stuck with an underwater mortgage, you can often rent a house for as much as the mortgage payments. The locals are no longer buying, whether because underemployment will not support a house purchase, because they can’t qualify for a loan no matter how good their credit is, or because they’ve lost their homes and won’t be able to borrow to buy a house anytime in the foreseeable future.
So, large numbers of houses in formerly quiet residential neighborhoods are being turned into commercial properties owned by foreign investors.
Experience suggests that this is not a good thing. The last time hordes of Canadians bought Arizona real estate—in the wake of the savings and loan fiasco—the result was a contagion of blight. When you live in some other country or state, you do not care about the condition of your “investment property.” It does not matter to you whether the lawn is mowed (or even watered), whether the paint is peeling, whether the shingles are curling, whether a public nuisance occupies the place.
This was so when the clown in upstate New York bought the house across the street, where the obnoxious Biker Boob and Bobby McGee resided for a couple of years. Before those two, we had the passel of male roommates, one of whom led a police chase through the neighborhood and had to be subdued in the front yard by the occupants of five cop cruisers plus two motorcycle cops. He finally unloaded the house. Whoever bought it did some fixup on the inside but nothing to the exterior. Unclear whether the owners live there or whether it’s a rental. Various signs suggest the latter, though. People who rent a house do nothing to care for it, and if the landlord doesn’t maintain the place, it quietly (well, sometimes not so quietly) sits there and deteriorates.
A steadily declining rate in property values “stabilization” does not make, any more than an excess of renters “stabilizes” a neighborhood of single-family homes.





