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How We Get in Trouble: Sensitivity and nonmonthly expenses

This is a post by L. Burke Files, president of Financial Examinations & Evaluations, Inc.

I have seen hundreds of people in financial distress. Often the nonevent problems (as opposed to events such as medical, job, relationship issues) arise from two matters that are more devastating than problems that come up because of a single costly event:

1. Sensitivity
2. Covering nonmonthly expenses with credit cards

Sensitivity, or our sensitivity to financial change, is measured as the percentage difference between our total income and our total expenditures. If I make $100,000 and spend $95,000, my sensitivity is 5 percent, as it will be if I make $20,000 and spend $19,500. If I earn $100,000 and spend $85,000, my sensitivity is 15 percent. On a $20,000 income, I would have to restrict my spending to $17,000 to bring my sensitivity to 15 percent.

Five percent is both shamefully low and higher than the national average. As you can see, the lower your sensitivity rating, the more vulnerable you are to inflation and economic recession, the harder it will be for you to save, and the more you are likely to suffer in the event of a layoff.

Never has the issue of sensitivity been more tested and proven than over the last few years. Real wages have stayed the same while expenses related to oil went up substantially. Oil prices have affected gasoline for cars, energy for running our homes, the cost of food, the cost of medical (think of all the plastic stuff doctors use), and so on, at great length. Because we saw no increase in real wages during this time, while basic costs increased tremendously, in one three-year period we went from several years of saving 5 percent of our income to spending 105 percent. This deficit spending was financed by savings or by credit card. We wiped our savings and ran up our credit cards. We have never been a nation of savers, like Japan, but we had inexpensive housing and food, compared to the rest of the world, now we do not.

Check to see what you sensitivity is—it may surprise you. Take the amount you spend and subtract it from the amount you earn. Now divide the remainder by the amount you earn. The result is your sensitivity, expressed as a decimal:

In 2008, you earned $50,000.
You spent $45,000.

$50,000
45,000
$ 5,000

$5,000 ÷$50,000 = .10 = 10%

Nonmonthly expenses are those expenses that we have agreed to pay but are not on our monthly budget or cash flow radar screen. These typically are annual or semiannual insurance bills, car repairs, and medical costs not covered by health insurance, but let us not forget school clothes and fees, veterinary bills, or unexpected repairs to our house. Most people manage by using a line of credit, usually in the form of credit cards, to bridge the gap. The balances grow and grow, because the root of the problem, failure to plan for these expenses, is never addressed.

How to address it? One way is to set up a small savings account or money jug at home. Estimate what your nonmonthly expenses will be for a year, and then divide that by 10. Put that amount of money in the account or jug. Yeah, I get there are 12 months in a year. If you estimated correctly, this will leave you have some money for the holidays and for savings. Over time, this practice will increase your sensitivity rating, allow you to avoid increasing debt, and improve your financial health.

2 thoughts on “How We Get in Trouble: Sensitivity and nonmonthly expenses”

  1. Interesting – I already save for the ‘escrow’ or ‘sinking fund’ bills – tax, insurance and insurance deductibles, vet bills and car repairs. But I’ve been dividing by 12 – I’ll think about dividing by 10.

    The other point, I’m not seeing. I use a zero based budget – every $ has a home, and so is effectively spent. OTOH, my savings (‘long term – retirement’, efund, and ‘mid term – house upgrade and new car’ funds are about 24% of my gross. If you add in the ‘sinking funds’, closer to 30% So I think I’m good, but I’m not sure how to quantify my ‘sensitivity’.

  2. Sensitivity has both objective and subjective components. The objective components are knowing what you are contracted to pay over the next “N” months. The subjective is the guessing on how accurate you will be with those agreement that are variable – and only seem to vary upwards, like insurance, power, gas, car repairs etc.. I think it is also time to add another subjective component and that is guessing what the inflation rate is going to be. It could be 10 to 12% within 16 months or so. That means we will need to add – say a 1%, per month escalator to our monthly expenses.

    So do a simple calculation to arrive at you sensitivity just like in the posting. The higher the number, the more robust your financial position is against change. It is is 24 to 30% you are in very good shape.

    Based upon your comments – you get it. You are also correct; every dollar has a home, even if that home is a safety net for the unplanned expenses.

    Burke

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