Coffee heat rising

Dollars and nickels and dimes, oh my!

Seven-thirty in the morning and I’m beat. The pool has been backwashed, the unhappy pool cleaner set in motion (again!), the rug backing Cassie pee’d on in last night’s panic at the vacuum cleaner run through the washer and hung on the line, the regular laundry started, the ironing I haven’t done for the past three weeks set aside (to be ignored a while longer), the dog fed, me fed, the kitchen cleaned up, and the dog walked. Now to sit down to Quicken, figure out what to do with the $600 tax rebate that finally came dragging in, and decide how to handle the red ink in this month’s budget.

I’m beginning to think $1,500 just isn’t enough to cover my monthly costs above and beyond the utility, loan, and insurance payments. It seems like a generous amount: for heaven’s sake, it’s almost a whole paycheck! How can I not live on fifteen hundred bucks???This month, with two more days to go in the budget cycle, I’m $351.28 in the hole. Although I have that much in savings, it’s $1.28 more than I had budgeted to buy some much-needed clothes in this summer’s sales. So…guess I won’t be buying clothes. Again. My wardrobe is rags just now, with exactly no summer dresses or skirts. All I have to wear is Costco jeans, which make me look like a beer barrel on two legs, and I’m out of decent shirts to go with them.

I’ve thought the budget issue had to do with the heavy hits from Anna’s final illness, which added up to over $1,000. But that’s now in the past. This month’s cycle started anew, and I’ve had four unexpected dings:

Leslie’s, clean out pool filter: $87.54

  • Veterinarian: examine Cassie for limp: $95.30
  • Dry cleaner: clean dhurrie rug to remove ointments Anna rubbed into it: $15
  • Vet: X-ray Cassie’s leg after I stepped on her sore foot: $17
  • Apple: new operating system to deal with server migration: $69.82

That comes to $402.66 in extra hits. Though it sounds like a lot, it shouldn’t be enough to put me $350 in the hole. As a practical matter, the $1,500 budget normally has so much play I can buy as much as $300 in clothing or other indulgences without having to dip into savings. What that seems to suggest is instead of being “generous” by about $300 a month, my $1,500 living expenses budget now has only about $102 of play ($402 – $300). A year ago, if I’d had $402 in unplanned expenses, I’d be about a hundred bucks in the hole…not $350.

Evidently inflation in routine costs has increased my day-to-day expenses by somewhere around $300. Costco’s gas was down to $3.99/gallon last week. I paid almost $60 for a fill-up that used to cost about $35, and I’m already almost half-empty. Though I’ve been staying away from the university as much as possible, now that my dean is back in town, I really should show up to work more often. If I drove to campus every day, I would have to fill up at least once a week–possibly more than that. That’s $240 a month, up from $140. Grocery inflation? Doesn’t apply. In fact, my grocery bills have been falling because I’ve quit driving to stores whenever I need one or two things. In this budget cycle I spent $361 on groceries, a relatively modest amount for me, since that is the one area where I do indulge myself. During the same period in 2007, I spent $571 at grocery stores (though some of it went to making food for two large dogs). The hair stylist has jacked up his prices, so that this week’s haircut plus a ten-dollar tip came to $75…and he cut my hair so short I look like one of those eccentric old ladies who gets her hair shaved off so she doesn’t have to comb it.

Wait: there’s a $55 car maintenance bill; that would account for some of the overrun. So that brings extraordinary costs to $450.

Problem is, the extraordinary costs keep rolling in. Yesterday a bill for car registration showed up: $116.34. That comes off the top of next month’s billing cycle. Then Cassie pee’d on the other dhurrie rug last night, adding another spot to the place where she shat, which I never cleaned out adequately. So now that rug has to go to the cleaner. It’s old and was never a fancy, expensive number like the one I had to take to the specialty cleaner after Anna smeared antibiotic ointments all over it. So I’m unloading it on a cheaper dry-cleaning outfit, whose rep says they’ll do the job for $70. That’s $186 out of next month’s budget…before the budget cycle even begins.

This month’s $350 shortfall…where will it come from? I could use the tax rebate to cover it, but really, I wanted to put that into the Renovation Loan payoff fund. If it comes out of savings, then it seriously does mean no clothing purchases until the winter sales. Argh! I desperately need summer clothes. Since I look like a wacky old lady who gets her hair shaved off so she doesn’t have to comb it, I might as well go around in faded, worn-out rags anyway. Won’t make much difference

Uh oh. Waitminit here. Sometime back I entered a note in Quicken to the effect that there’s a surplus in the credit-card budget’s cookie jar. That’s the result of living under budget for several months and not transferring the surplus to pay down loan principal…it created a de facto emergency fund

Am I saved? Could this be true? Let us away to the credit union’s website…
* * *

HOLY mackerel!

There’s a surplus, all right. It’s nine hundred and seventy-six bucks! Lordie. I noted that at the beginning of the month and then forgot it, in the flurry over the website, the injured dog, hurting myself (when I fell on the pavement tripping over the dog), running late on a client’s job, and generally being too darn hot and too darn old.

Amazing grace! It’s a miracle. Maybe Lady Karma has decided to quit kicking me in the shins. Or at least, maybe this time She missed.
🙂

Why there is no cross-over point

For most of us, the goal in building wealth is to reach the “crossover point,” where passive income from investments equals the amount you need to live on. The sooner the better: early crossover point = early retirement.

It’s times like these, though, that give me pause about that idea. To retire with little risk of a gigantic cut in living standards, you would need to have so much money invested that, unless you’re an entrepreneurial wizard, it would take an entire lifetime to accumulate it. Most of us will never manage to do so. The amount needed to support you reliably through an extended retirement would have to far exceed the actual crossover point.

Why? Two reasons:

  1. Inflation
  2. The vagaries of the stock market

Either of these can destroy the purchasing power of your investments; since high inflation and unstable market conditions often occur together, you can expect that sometime during your retirement, you’ll watch both of them sit down side by side to the dinner table that is your life savings.

That’s the case right now. At the end of March, my total investments came to about $583,000. Today, with the belated 403b statements from TIAA-CREF and Fidelity finally in hand, the total comes to $551,700, a loss of $31,300. Meanwhile, costs for food and gasoline are pushing my daily expenses past my budget.

What Dependence on Passive Income Would Mean to Me

If I tried to live on 4% of savings (the amount recommended as a safe drawdown) plus Social Security, I would experience a 35% pay cut. Not that it would matter, because I couldn’t live on 4% of what I have in savings anyway. Four percent of $583,000, the pre-stock fall amount, is a grand $23,320. Add my projected Social Security payments of $16,608 to that, and you get a munificent income of $39,928: a $22,072 cut in pay at retirement.

I can’t live on that. I’m barely living on what I earn.

In fact, as we speak my week-to-week budget is again in the red and about to go deeper therein: this afternoon the pool repair guy will clip me for $105, leaving me $4 in the hole against a budget supposed to last until the sixth. Today is the first. Thursday I have to go to the doctor; that will be a $20 copay, putting me $24 in the hole. If I have to buy prescription meds, add another $20 to that: $44 in the red. That means that even if I buy no food, no dog food, no gasoline, no toiletries, no cleaning goods-if I buy absolutely nothing-I will start next week $44 short. And this month I’ve had no extraordinary expenses, unless you call this afternoon’s overdue routine pool maintenance extraordinary.

I can’t let the pool ride until next week, because the pump and filter have slowed to the point where they’re not driving the system efficiently enough to keep the pool clean in an Arizona summer’s extreme weather conditions. Letting your pool go green is a violation of the law; the county flies over the city in helicopters, checking pools from the air. The fine for neglecting the pool would demolish my budget permanently.

The costs of gasoline and food are now so high that my budget will not cover all my routine needs. That’s while I’m earning $22,000 more than I will see during retirement, when about two-thirds of my income will be based on an optimistic projection of investment income.

These needs will never change: I always will have to eat, I always will have to maintain the dwelling I occupy, I always will have to transport myself around the city to purchase necessities.

You might say I simply haven’t reached my crossover point. I would reply that for most people, there is no crossover point.

What This Means for All of Us

The longer you work, the more you appear to earn: inflation alone pushes your salary higher through cost of living increases, and if you have a decent employer, you get occasional merit increases. But the more you earn, the more it takes to live. Even though my salary is high in absolute terms (the median income for a four-person family), the truth is that relative to the cost of living, it is the same or even lower than it was a year ago. So, probably, is yours.

Lower, indeed: since May 2007, when I started the weekly budget plan, I was consistently in the black until the March/April 2008 cycle. Every budget cycle ended in the black overall…until inflation ticked up and income stayed static. Since April, I’ve been in the red almost every week. Because state employees received neither COLAs nor merit increases this year, costs have risen but my income has stayed static. Remember, if you retire when you reach the crossover point, income always stays static.

Let’s imagine, for example, if I were retired and would never see another merit pay increase; if the only increase I would see would be an occasional cost of living increase in Social Security, not necessarily granted every year; if every time the stock market dropped, I saw a cut in pay. Add to that the ever-increasing cost of Medicare.

If I work until I’m 66 and we grant that I need about as much as I’m earning now to stay where I’m living and not be forced to move someplace cheaper, then the crossover point that would allow me to remain in my paid-off home would require income-generating savings of $1,134,800, and that amount would have to increase annually to keep up with inflation! In other words, the recommended 4% drawdown from life savings of over a million dollars combined with Social Security would not suffice to provide a person with enough income to live in my current modest (some would say “ascetic”), debt-free style.

Thus I would argue that unless you are part of a married couple, both of you are earning in the six figures, and you live frugally, stay out of debt, and save exuberantly, you are unlikely ever to see a real crossover point at which your passive income will cover your expenses for the rest of your life. This applies to most people who think of themselves as members of the middle class: teachers, midlevel administrators, shopkeepers, sales staff, police officers, fire fighters, most people in the trades, most government employees, just about anyone who inhabits a cube…virtually all of us.

What Can Be Done

If you are a young person, get out of debt, stay out of debt, and save every penny you can. Max out your employment-related savings plan, fully fund a Roth IRA every year, and put everything else you can into non-tax-deferred savings.

Angle to get yourself into a decently paid job that’s not too obnoxious, so that you can contemplate working until death do you part from your employer without wincing at the very thought of it.

Why not simply plan to work until you drop dead and just spend everything you earn? Because few of us will stay healthy long enough to work until we die. Because we live in a culture that abhors age and discriminates against the elderly, and so few of us are likely to be able to hold a decent job until we die. Even though you probably will need to work well into old age, you had better have enough savings to live on between the time you can no longer land and hold a job and the time you shuffle off this mortal coil.

If you are my age (born during the Cretaceous Period): do not even think about retiring unless you have well over a million dollars per person to generate passive income.

I’m now planning to work until I’m 70 and to bank after-tax Social Security income starting at 66 1/2, when I’m eligible for the full amount. If I can hold my job that long, I can maintain my lifestyle for a while longer. If I die before then, at least I won’t have had to choose between going hungry or moving to cheaper housing in a ghetto for the elderly. If I live that long, the number of years remaining to me will be few enough that a larger draw-down probably won’t consume my entire savings before I die-and maybe I can even stay in my home.

2 Comments left on iWeb site:

frugalscholar

The crossover point from YMYL is based on absolute certainty of income: the book recommended Treasury Bonds, which at the time paid a guaranteed 8-10%.Those days are long gone.

YMYL also said not to be afraid of inflation: I am tracking this right now.

Tuesday, July 1, 2008 – 10:31 A

vh

IMHO not to fear inflation is to wear blinders.

My father thought he had plenty to carry him and my mother through a long and comfortable retirement. Then came the 1970s and double-digit inflation. His formerly generous savings, which indeed were invested conservatively, bought him a poverty-level lifestyle.

Tuesday, July 1, 2008 – 12:51 P