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Personal Finance

How much was that dollar worth? Interesting money tool

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In a history article for a client journal, one of our authors mentioned Measuring Worth, a nifty tool that allows you to compare a variety of money-related values over periods stretching back to 1774.  Among other things, it will calculate the relative worth of the dollar. Enter a specific sum and a year, and then ask what it would have been worth in a later  year. The engine disgorges the equivalent according to six different indicators: the consumer price index (CPI), the gross domestic product (GDP) deflator, the consumer bundle, the unskilled wage rate, the GDP per capita, and the GDP.

The first two are ways of measuring average prices. The third (consumer bundle) shows the average value of a household’s annual expenditures; the unskilled wage rate provides a way to compare wages over time. The GDP per capita is another way to compare income over time, and the GDP itself, the market value of all goods a country produces in a year, shows “how much money in the comparable year would be the same percent of all output.”

More on this feature in a minute.

First, though, let’s look at a feature of special interest to personal finance enthusiasts: Measuring Worth also has a tool that shows how much savings would have grown over time. Enter a value and a date, and then ask how much that value would be worth at another date (up to this year), and it will tell you the return on a short-term investment, a long-term investment, and a stock market investment.

So…let’s say your child is 19 years old now, and you’d like to send her to college. When she was born, in 1990, your parents gave you $1,000 to invest toward her education. If you’d put the money in an excruciatingly safe short-term asset, today it would be worth $2,060. Invested in a long-term asset with a term of 20 years, it would have yielded $4,973. And had you put it in a Dow Jones Average portfolio, you would have $4,196, a middling performance.

Well, what if your own parents gave you $1,000—say, when you were born—and now you’re about to retire? If you were 65 today, the gift would have come in 1944 (and it would have been a lot of moola in those days!). Assuming you kept that investment separate and didn’t add more cash other than reinvesting proceeds, how far would it go today toward supporting you in your old age?

• Short-term investment: $16,457.53
• Long-term investment, 30-year term: $32,816.67
• DJA portfolio: $78,449.64

Whoa! Over a really long term, the stock market beats the other two investment modes, hands-down.

I wonder how our college girl would’ve been doing before the Bushies screwed up the economy. How much would her stock portfolio have been worth a couple of years ago, when she was 17?

Ah hah! $4,918. In the stock market, her savings would have fallen off $722 over the the year between 2007 and 2008. In a long-term investment instrument, it would’ve been worth $4,549 in 2007, $424 less than the most recent value. It appears that given competent national leadership that recognized the importance of regulating financial markets and was capable of an intelligent response to 9/11, she might have been better off in stocks and bonds.

Entertaining, isn’t it?

Now for the money story:

At the time my father was born, in 1909, his mother had about $100,000. She’d inherited this small fortune from her father, who had made it freighting buffalo hides out of Oklahoma into Texas. Also at about the time my father arrived, her husband ran off. He eventually was found dead by the side of a rural Texas highway. This left her alone with an infant, a change-of-life baby. My father had two elder brothers, the youngest of whom was 18 years older than he was. By the time he was born, both men were out of the house with families of their own.

She became involved with a Christian church on the fringes of mainline Protestantism, and she also became interested in spiritualism. She donated copious amounts to both causes. By the time my father was about ten years old, these worthies had sheared her of every penny that she had. She was left destitute.

Her home was taken away for taxes. She also lost a commercial property and another house she owned. The two older brothers, who knew nothing of this until they returned home and found her on the street, fell out over the fiasco. Tom, the eldest, was a ranch foreman who, of course, lived out in the sticks. He felt his middle brother, Ed, who lived in Fort Worth where their mother lived, should have been keeping an eye on her finances. The brothers were permanently alienated as a result of the bad feelings that arose in the wake of their mother’s impoverishment.

My father also was permanently affected. He developed a lifelong hatred of organized religion (his skepticism—shall we say—is the reason that to this day I will not donate to a church), and he also conceived a passion about money. He decided that, as his life’s goal, he would earn back the hundred thousand dollars.

And he did.

You understand, he was not a sophisticated man. He dropped out of high school in his junior year, lied about his age, and joined the Navy. He went to sea all his adult life, ultimately became a master mariner, and retired at the age of 53, when he achieved his goal of accruing $100,000 in savings. Details like the relative value of money were largely beyond his ken. Though he understood that a hundred grand didn’t make him a wealthy man in 1962, he had no way of anticipating the double-digit inflation of the 1970s. By the time that was over, the nest egg that would have kept him comfortable wasn’t worth enough to support him through his old age in a fashion other than basic poverty.

Luckily, he was a very frugal man by nature, and so it didn’t much matter: his lifestyle wouldn’t have changed, one way or the other.

I have always wondered what that $100,000 of 1909 would be worth in today’s dollars. Let’s enter it and the date of my father’s birth into the Measuring Worth relative value calculator. Current data, we’re told, are available only up to 2008. According to the various measures, today the dollar value of her inheritance would be…

• CPI: $2,441,007.10
• GDP Deflator: $1,777,507.10
• Value of consumer bundle: $5,009,823.18
• Unskilled wage: $10,307,228.92
• Nominal GDP per capita: $13,314,632.87
• Relative share of GDP: $44,808,290.00

In terms of purchasing power, my grandmother’s hundred grand would have been worth $2,441,077.10 in 2008. LOL! Think of the McMansion I could’ve bought with that as a down payment!

What if she had put her inheritance in the stock market, instead of diddling it away on her religious delusions? Invested in a nice, balanced portfolio, by the end of 2008 it would have been worth $16,595,085.85.

Well. Any way you look at it, if she been a little smarter about money and a little less inclined to woo-woo, today I wouldn’t be worrying about how I’m going to get by in retirement!

My father hugely underestimated the amount he would need to live comfortably into his mid-80s. Of course, without his mother’s crystal ball he couldn’t have anticipated the inflation that ate up his savings…but I think, given the way the government is spending money in the wake of the crash of the Bush economy, we can expect a similar inflationary period in the near future.

How much would I need in savings to have the equivalent of the $100,000 he had managed to earn back by 1962?

• CPI:  $711,510.24
• GDP Deflator: $569,106.07
• Value of consumer bundle: $879,310.34
• Unskilled wage: $809,366.13
• Nominal GDP per capita: $1,510,749.04
• Relative share of GDP: $2,465,665.02
• Purchasing power: $711,510.24

Hm. If the least of these—$569,106.07—is what I’ll need to survive in moderate comfort (or not!), then I’m in deep trouble. Eighteen months ago, my savings were close to that. But today they sure aren’t, thank you very much, George and friends!

Welp, too late now. There’s not a thing I can do about it, so there’s no point in fretting. Tra la!

A little massaging of figures

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Interestingly, I found a table on the Social Security Administration’s site that calculates how much your “full” retirement age SS benefit is reduced according to the number of months you retire “early.” GDU is closing our office and canning me a year and four months before I reach so-called “full” retirement age.

This has caused many hours of worried number-crunching, because you can’t earn more than $14,160 in a  year without incurring a 50% surtax on the amount you earn above that threshold. If you have the temerity to overstep that boundary by a few dollars, Social Security withholds not just the amount you owe, but an entire month’s benefit! (Or more, depending on how gravely you’ve sinned.) You get it back, minus the amounted owed, the following January! That’s assuming, of course, that you haven’t starved to death by then.

It’s a real problem for me, because my savings, formerly adequate to support me in retirement, have been so dessicated by the crash of the Bush-Cheney economy that today a reasonable 4 percent drawdown plus Social Security plus the allowed $14,160 in part-time earnings will not yield enough to support me.

My financial counselor, however, advises me that my savings probably will outlast my lifetime even at a 6 percent drawdown, though he’s not happy at the prospect. On their own, the net of Social Security plus a 6 percent draw would leave my Ultimate Belt-Tightened Budget $5,544 in the red at the end of 2010.

Obviously, I’ll have to teach, do freelance editing, or some combination thereof as long as I’m splitting the cost of the downtown house with M’hijito. When that obligation goes away, I may just barely get by on Social Security and investment income. And of course…I can’t work forever—sooner or later the day will come when I can’t earn anything.

At the Social Security page above, I discovered that in January 2010 I’ll be “entitled” to 91.1% of my “full” retirement benefit. This comes to $16,026, about $2082 more than I’d been figuring.

Well. Every little bit helps.

It also occurred to me that I don’t have to put the $3,168 that I think I’ll net on the $5,280 GDU will owe me for unused vacation time, come next December, directly into savings. Instead, I could use it to live on in 2010.

In 2011, because I reach 66 that year, I’ll be allowed to earn something over $37,000 between January and my birthday in May (capricious as hell, isn’t it? the rules must have been written by a committee of asylum inmates!). This means that in 2010, I don’t have to worry about limiting earned income.

Taking the new Social Security estimate and adding estimated net vacation pay plus a 6 percent investment drawdown, I come up with a somewhat brighter estimate of 2010 income.

Without teaching at all, apparently I would end up only $2,376 in the hole at the end of the year. Since I will probably net about $1,920 for one community college course, this would mean I would have to teach only two sections a year to break even. That assumes that my estimate of the tax bite is correct, and that, at $39,672, I have not grossly underestimated my annual expenses.

However, if I chose to get off my duff and actually work, taking a 6 percent drawdown and applying the vacation pay to 2010 living expenses would provide a pretty generous income, without drawing any Social Security:

Teaching 5 & 5 (for a total of 4 GDU courses and 6 community college courses over a year), an unholy teaching overload, would give me plenty of money to live on in this first, terrifying year of unemployment. Even teaching a more reasonable load of 4 & 4 would provide an adequate cushion, assuming no really major expenses come up. The middle column in this table would have me teaching three sections a semester at GDU, which I think is disallowed—more than two would make you benefits-eligible, which of course is exactly what universities and colleges are trying to avoid by hiring adjunct faculty.

Advantages: It would free me from a lot of bureaucratic complications, and it would allow me to earn as much as I can.

Disadvantage: The massive workload would allow no time for freelancing, and over a year, I would lose my freelance clients.

A far better course load of 3 & 3 at the community colleges, combined with Social Security, vacation pay, and a 6 percent drawdown, also would keep me comfortably in the black. In fact, the result would be significantly better than working myself into an early grave:

Hot dang! In this scenario (if it’s accurate), I actually could bank the $3,168 vacation pay and still get by just fine.

Advantages: Though I still have to work, I don’t have to kill myself at it. The amount left here suggests I will have no problem covering expenditures, even if a large unexpected expense arises. There should still be time for freelance work, and every $2,400 earned there is one composition course I don’t have to teach!

Disadvantage: I’ll have to draw more than is desirable from savings.

Dropping the drawdown to 5 percent would reduce the total annual net to $45,170, cutting the year-end black ink to $5,500. Even at 4 percent, I stay in the black, but with a much smaller margin: about $1,950 at the end of the year.

What I ultimately do depends on what Social Security actually pays me, which will be different from my guesses. They’re missing two years of income that I can prove I had; though it’s not much, it may increase the benefits a little. More likely, though, benefits will be less than I estimate. That’s just the way my karma goes.

It also depends on the tax load: I’m estimating 20% based on the facts that not all your SS is taxed and that I will deduct everything I can think of from all this contract income. With any luck, the taxes won’t bankrupt me—but again, we’re depending on luck, and the way things have gone over the past year, it looks like the luck well is running a bit dry.

The safest course, it appears, will be to take a 5 percent or a 6 percent drawdown in 2010, start Social Security in January, and sign up for three community college sections in the spring semester. Then, in the fall, reduce the teaching load according to the amount freelancing brings in during the spring and early summer. Then in 2010 I can drop the drawdown to 5 percent or maybe even 4 percent, depending on how much freelance income is happening.

How We Get in Trouble: Sensitivity and nonmonthly expenses

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This is a post by L. Burke Files, president of Financial Examinations & Evaluations, Inc.

I have seen hundreds of people in financial distress. Often the nonevent problems (as opposed to events such as medical, job, relationship issues) arise from two matters that are more devastating than problems that come up because of a single costly event:

1. Sensitivity
2. Covering nonmonthly expenses with credit cards

Sensitivity, or our sensitivity to financial change, is measured as the percentage difference between our total income and our total expenditures. If I make $100,000 and spend $95,000, my sensitivity is 5 percent, as it will be if I make $20,000 and spend $19,500. If I earn $100,000 and spend $85,000, my sensitivity is 15 percent. On a $20,000 income, I would have to restrict my spending to $17,000 to bring my sensitivity to 15 percent.

Five percent is both shamefully low and higher than the national average. As you can see, the lower your sensitivity rating, the more vulnerable you are to inflation and economic recession, the harder it will be for you to save, and the more you are likely to suffer in the event of a layoff.

Never has the issue of sensitivity been more tested and proven than over the last few years. Real wages have stayed the same while expenses related to oil went up substantially. Oil prices have affected gasoline for cars, energy for running our homes, the cost of food, the cost of medical (think of all the plastic stuff doctors use), and so on, at great length. Because we saw no increase in real wages during this time, while basic costs increased tremendously, in one three-year period we went from several years of saving 5 percent of our income to spending 105 percent. This deficit spending was financed by savings or by credit card. We wiped our savings and ran up our credit cards. We have never been a nation of savers, like Japan, but we had inexpensive housing and food, compared to the rest of the world, now we do not.

Check to see what you sensitivity is—it may surprise you. Take the amount you spend and subtract it from the amount you earn. Now divide the remainder by the amount you earn. The result is your sensitivity, expressed as a decimal:

In 2008, you earned $50,000.
You spent $45,000.

$50,000
–45,000
$ 5,000

$5,000 ÷$50,000 = .10 = 10%

Nonmonthly expenses are those expenses that we have agreed to pay but are not on our monthly budget or cash flow radar screen. These typically are annual or semiannual insurance bills, car repairs, and medical costs not covered by health insurance, but let us not forget school clothes and fees, veterinary bills, or unexpected repairs to our house. Most people manage by using a line of credit, usually in the form of credit cards, to bridge the gap. The balances grow and grow, because the root of the problem, failure to plan for these expenses, is never addressed.

How to address it? One way is to set up a small savings account or money jug at home. Estimate what your nonmonthly expenses will be for a year, and then divide that by 10. Put that amount of money in the account or jug. Yeah, I get there are 12 months in a year. If you estimated correctly, this will leave you have some money for the holidays and for savings. Over time, this practice will increase your sensitivity rating, allow you to avoid increasing debt, and improve your financial health.

Retirement planner yields interesting discovery

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If you’re nearing retirement or thinking about how you can escape into early retirement, check out Vanguard’s retirement planning tools. You don’t have to be logged in to use these things. Go to https://personal.vanguard.com/us/home and click on “Planning and Education”; from there navigate to Retirement Planning > I’m Planning to Retire > Evaluate Your Expenses and Income. Entering the site through this pathway takes you past a number of other options, including some for people who aren’t yet on the verge of retirement.

For example, you can create an investment plan, plan for college, learn the basics of estate planning, and discover how to manage your portfolio with an eye to tax savings.

But since I equate the coming layoff with enforced retirement (as in please don’t throw me in the brier patch), my exploration soon took me to Vanguard’s paired worksheets, one that allows you to estimate your expenses and one that helps you estimate your retirement income and figure whether it will support you.

To my amazement, Vanguard’s machine-generated planning estimates are more optimistic than what Excel  has been telling me. As you may recall, I’ve figured I might have to draw down as much as 6 percent of total savings to get by; at best, 5 percent was a likely number.

Because Medicare will cost about 12 times what I pay for health insurance now and because I’ll have to pay my share of the mortgage on the downtown house out of cash flow, my monthly living and emergency savings costs will rise from the current $2,800 to about $3,275—$425 more than my present take-home pay!

However, even with that stunning expense figure entered in the retirement income worksheet, Vanguard tells me that the amount I’ll have to draw down from savings will be only 4.3 percent of the total.

I can’t account for the difference. At first I thought it had to do with the way taxes were figured—Vanguard’s income worksheet automatically generates an estimated tax liability based on the tax rates you provide—but punching a few numbers into a handheld calculator shows that not to be so. Unless I’ve made a mistake in entering expenses, it looks like Social Security, part-time teaching income, and a drawdown of a little over 4 percent will just about cover the average monthly cost of living. Excel shows an average monthly cost of $3,306; Vanguard’s comes to $3,275, not a significant difference.

Either of these figures requires me to avoid extraordinary expenses at all costs, something I haven’t succeeded in doing for lo, these many months. One crazy cost after another—some optional, some decidely not—has overrun my budget three out of the past five months, and probably will overrun it this month, too. Last year I ran in the red five out of twelve months; once by only $37, but still…

If we think in terms of the whole year rather than focusing tightly on given months, last year’s total black ink came to $1,397.37; red ink totaled $726.23, leaving me $671.14 to the good at the end of the year. However! Last year’s discretionary budget was $1,500 a  month. The amount I entered in Vanguard’s worksheet comes to only $1,265—and that includes a $500/month allowance for extraordinary expenses. It’s highly questionable whether I can live on that: last year’s expenditures averaged $1,440 a month.

Starting in January, I cut the budget for nonrecurring expenses to $1,200 a month. As of June 20, the end of the last budget cycle, I was $681.89 in the red: an average of $136 a month! That’s after The Copyeditor’s Desk covered every expense I could justify as a business cost.

So it appears that in retirement, unless Medicare and income taxes are less than I think they’ll be, I will not be able to cover every expense that comes my way. I’ve got seven months to get the extraordinary spending under control.

Image: Micky, Hammock on Beach; Wikipedia Commons

Identity Theft: Three ways to fight it

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A few years ago, SDXB and I learned separately that each of our credit reports said we had lived at an address neither of us had ever heard of, in Tempe, Arizona. Although neither of us was harmed financially, it indicated a type of identity theft known as “application fraud” or “true name fraud.”

It took about a year to get the fake address off my credit records. Once it was expunged, I pretty much forgot about it…until a couple of weeks ago. That was when Costco announced it didn’t have my current address and my membership renewal was overdue. When I went to customer service to pay up, the CSR happened to show me her computer monitor, and what should I discover but that my home address was listed as SDXB’s former address and my business address is now at that same fake address in Tempe!

The appearance of an unfamiliar address on your credit report is one of many possible signs of identity theft. Other warning signs are missing bills, unexplained charges to your accounts, the existence of accounts you didn’t open, denial of credit for no apparent reason, and dunning calls from bill collectors for items you didn’t purchase.

Undoing a mess some crook has made is very difficult. It can take years to persuade creditors and credit reporting agencies that you’ve been a victim of identity theft, and the crime can haunt you for a long time. Thieves have so many ways to steal your private information, many of which you have no control over, that you really can’t prevent it. But you can take a few steps to reduce your risk. I think of them in terms of three strategies:

1. Monitor

You’re entitled to free annual credit reports from each of the three major credit reporting bureaus, Equifax, Experian, and Transunion. Rather than having to go through the hassle of contacting each of these agencies separately, it’s now possible to order credit reports through a single source, annualcreditreport.com. Instead of ordering all three reports at once, take advantage of the federal law by revisiting annualcreditreport.com once every four months, so that you can spread out reports from the three agencies over the course of a year. This will allow you to monitor your credit reports steadily. Watch for any unexplained activity or accounts you don’t recognize.

Also, before you pay a credit card bill, remember to review the statement carefully. Check financial accounts and billing statements each month, looking for charges you didn’t make.

2. Prevent

Limit the number of credit cards you carry around. Keep no more than one or two cards in your wallet.

Pay in cash at restaurants and other establishments where you can’t watch what an employee does with your card after you present it for payment. This eliminates the use of a skimmer, a handheld device thieves use to swipe cards for later download into their own computers.

Don’t use debit cards. If you must, memorize your PIN; don’t carry a note with your PIN in your wallet or purse. Avoid using your birthdate, numbers of your address, sequential numbers, or four digits of your Social Security number as PINs. Never use a debit card for online shopping.

Photocopy your credit and debit cards, front and back, and keep the photocopies in a safe place. This makes it easy to contact issuers if cards are stolen.

Don’t allow anyone to write your credit card number on a check.

Always take credit card receipts with you. Carry them in your wallet or purse, and shred them before discarding.

Carry outgoing snail mail to a USPS post box or postal station. Don’t leave it in your mailbox to be picked up by the postal carrier. To protect financial information sent to you through the mails, install a locking mailbox.

Avoid giving out your Social Security number. Don’t carry a Social Security card or Medicare card on your person. You (or your parents) can photocopy a Medicare card, trim it down to wallet size, and cut out the last four digits of the SSN that appears on it. Take the original the first time you see a doctor; otherwise, store it in a safe place at home.

Opt out of marketing lists for the three credit bureaus, limiting the number of free credit offers sent to you in the mail. When you do get such offers, always shred them or scissor them into tiny pieces before throwing them in the trash. Also register your telephone number with the National Do Not Call List, to further reduce offers from hustlers.

And of course, never respond to phishing e-mails. Remember, a legitimate bank or creditor will not ask you for your account number or Social Security number.

3. Fight back

At the first sign of identity fraud, notifiy all three credit bureaus and place a fraud alert on your account. This is good for 90 days. This step entitles you to a free credit report; get one from each agency and review all three reports carefully.

Report the theft or fraudulent activity to the police in writing, using an identity theft report.

Once you have filed an identity theft report with law enforcement agencies, use that and your evidence of identity theft to extend the credit bureaus’ fraud alert for seven years.

Report the crime to the Federal Trade Commission, using the police report number you got when you filed a police report.

Learn what your rights as an identity theft victim are.

If an identity thief has opened new accounts in your name, contact these creditors immediately. Federal law allows you to block businesses from reporting fraudulent activity to credit reporting agencies; the sample dispute letter available here will come in handy for that purpose.

If the thief has used existing accounts that belong to you, report the fraudulent activity to the creditors. Arrange to close the accounts and have new accounts with new account numbers issused to you.

So…what am I going to do about the Costco situation?

Well, we have a fair idea where this came from: only one person could connect SDXB and me in quite that way (the phony entry showed my legal first name, which I don’t use socially; few people who knew the two of us as a couple know my real name). At the time the spurious address popped up in our credit reports, this person was engaged in an extramarital affair. We figured she and the boyfriend had forged driver’s licenses in our names so they could rent themselves a love nest.

More recently, the same someone, who has been in deep financial trouble for quite some time, likely ran out of cash about the time her Costco membership lapsed. So she dug out the fake ID, presented herself as me, and said she’d lost her card. If she went in and asked for a new card in my name, she might have been asked for an address. SDXB’s old street address was at the same number as my new street address; the only difference is that one house is on Erewhon Road and the other is on Erewhon Place. So if she gave his old address as “hers”/mine, it would be credible.

I guess what I will do is cancel my Costco membership. Then we’ll have M’hijito buy a new membership in his name, with me on his account as a secondary card holder. This will be a hassle, because they’ll have to issue a new Costco American Express card with a new account number.

But since she hasn’t done anything (so far) that’s cost me any money or damaged my credit rating, maybe I’ll just let it ride and keep a close eye on the credit reports. Who cares if she gets into Costco for free?

The high cost of Medicare

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In a comment to my recent post about planning for the pending layoff/retirement/whatever-we’re-calling-it, Abigail asks about the costs of Medicare, which I estimate will be around $300. I’ll be eligible for Medicare in May of 2010. So, between the December 31 canning date and May I’ll have to take COBRA, which will cost about $480 a month.

Medicare alone doesn’t cover all your costs: it’s an 80-20 plan. The older you get, the shorter the odds that you’ll suffer a catastrophically expensive illness. Heart bypass surgery, for example, can cost $170,000; 20 percent of that would be $34,000, which you have to pay out of pocket. Cancer treatment can quickly mount into the hundreds of thousands of dollars. Clearly, if you have to pay 20 percent of costs like that, a major illness—almost inevitable in old age—will pauperize you.

To protect yourself, you have to buy a supplemental policy called “Medigap” insurance. You also are required—it’s not an option—to take and pay for prescription drug coverage under Medicare Part D. By law, Medicare Part B and Medigap insurance provide no prescription coverage. If you decline to sign up for Part D when you start Medicare and then later change your mind, you are gouged royally for the privilege of signing up later.

To be fully covered, you have to cobble together coverage with the standard Medicare Part A (which is free), Medicare Part B (which costs about $100 a month), Medicare Part D (which evidently runs about $30 to $65 a month but which, if you suffer an illness that requires expensive drug therapy, will leave you holding the bag for upwards of $4,350), and Medigap insurance (provided by private insurers, apparently ranging in cost from an average of about $100 to about $285 a month—it’s next to impossible to find out what the actual costs are). By the time you’ve added up Part B, Part D, and Medigap, you end up with a monthly cost of about $300 a month. That amount will never go down, and you can be sure that like every other cost else in life, it will continue to rise.

At this time, the combined cost of full Medicare coverage is about 12 times what I pay for my employer’s EPO plan, which covers my doctor of 30 years. Since 1987, he has practiced at the Mayo. The Mayo Clinic, because of Medicare’s low reimbursement rates, now refuses to accept new patients who are covered by Medicare. They will keep you if you’re already an active patient, but if you walk in off the street and you’re covered by Medicare, they won’t take you.

You can opt out of the public system and instead buy private insurance through Medicare Part C. These plans are basically HMOs, and they are dangerous. They’re extremely restrictive—you have little or no choice as to which doctors you see, and like all HMOs they’re not in business to take care of you; they’re in business to make a profit. Consequently, it’s in their interest to limit the amount and quality of healthcare you get and to direct you to the cheapest providers.

Now, the problem is that hospitals in Arizona are about as good as schools in Arizona, which is to say “not very.” It was at one of our major regional health centers where I waited over four hours with acute appendicitis and never saw so much as a triage nurse. When I finally got to the Mayo’s ER, they slapped me into surgery instantly. In another major hospital, my mother-in-sin underwent successful aortic surgery but almost died because, while recuperating in a hospital room, she had a heart attack that went unnoticed by anyone but a CLEANING LADY! Her life was saved because a maid happened to wander into the room and figured something was wrong.

Only one hospital in Arizona consistently gets top national ratings, and it’s the Mayo. That’s why you need to retain your choice of doctors and medical facilities, no matter how much that privilege costs you.