Summer is y-cumen in, and with it, presumably more catastrophic storms in the South and the Midwest and more catastrophic wildfires in the West. Most of us probably have thought about and made some at least cursory preparations for in acute emergency, such as a house fire, a power outage of a couple of days, or a temporary evacuation. For an event like that, it’s wise to have a “go bag,” holding important papers and identification, a credit card and some cash, prescription drugs, and maybe a pistol and ammunition. But have you thought about how you and your family would cope with a truly catastrophic, long-term emergency?
Several scenarios, some less unlikely than others, could wreak some very serious havoc and, over time, pose an extreme threat to individual safety. For example, a month or so ago the New York Times ran a report about the monster solar storm that occurred in 1859 and pointed out that if such an event occurred in the 21st century, it could take down a developed country’s electrical grid. Recovery could take anywhere from a week to several years. An ill-timed coronal mass ejection, known as a Carrington event, is thought not to be a “maybe” occurrence but a “sooner or later” one. John Kappenman, an expert on the effect of solar storms on utilities, says utilities will suffer severe damage to expensive transformers and other key components, resulting in outages that could last for months. “Think of Sandy magnified by a hundredfold,” he suggests.
We’ve already seen what Hurricane Sandy did. Many people are still out of their homes, and it remains to be seen whether the damaged development will be — or even should be — rebuilt.
Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans, causing the worst engineering disaster in the history of the U.S. and leading to civil disturbances, breakdown of civil order, mass evacuations, and extreme threats to public health and safety.
Long-term drought and heat have brought catastrophic wildfires into cities such as Colorado Springs, Los Angeles, and and Oakland. Wildfire seasons seem to start earlier and be more intense each year. To those of us who believe in science, it’s pretty clear these are not flukes but events we can expect to see occurring with increasing frequency and severity. But even if you’re a climate-change denier, it’s impossible to overlook the fact that massive, catastrophic climate events have occurred in the past — one of them admirably chronicled by Ken Burns for PBS.
Be that as it may, we don’t need Mother Nature to cause trouble for us: we can do a pretty good job of that ourselves. A recent report from the National Academy of Sciences points out that a well organized and well timed terrorist attack on the power grid would cause cascading outages across North America that could take weeks or months to repair. Nor would a series of bombs be required to take down the power grid: a smart hacker could accomplish the same from the comfort of a desk chair. It is believed that countries unfriendly to the U.S. are already at work on building such a capability.
Consider what would happen if we had little or no electric power for an extended period.
We have, of course, the obvious issues: large parts of the American Southwest are habitable during the summer only by dint of air conditioning. The reverse is true in the upper Midwest and the North Atlantic states: people survive the winters because their homes are heated by electricity or by fuels that require electric power to produce and dispense them. Hospitals need electric power to keep patients alive. Airplane, automobile, and train traffic is made possible to a large extent by electric power. The vast computer system on which our commerce system depends runs on electricity. Even laptops and cell phones have to be recharged occasionally.
On an individual level, the ramifications are huge.
• You couldn’t refuel your car — gas pumps run on electricity, too.
• Most retailers couldn’t sell food, medications, or repair supplies to you: their computerized cash registers require electricity to operate.
• Electric stoves wouldn’t work, so if yours is one of those elegant glass-top stoves, you couldn’t cook food or sterilize water.
• Modern gas stoves, which have no pilot lights, also need electricity to run safely or, for many models, to operate at all.
• Not that you’d have food for long: whatever is in your freezer and refrigerator would spoil within hours or days.
• Without diesel or gasoline to power trucks, many parts of the country would quickly see food shortages.
• Absent air-conditioning or heating, the elderly and small children would be at great risk. In the event of an outage that extended weeks or months, people would die.
• Hospital emergency rooms would be available only for the most dire cases; obtaining medical care would be difficult or impossible.
• As conditions deteriorated, some of our honored neighbors would run amok, looting, robbing, and rampaging with little to stop them. The difficulty of maintaining civil order in a large city would make conditions extremely dangerous for everyone.
So…even if you’re not washed out of your home by a flood, blown away by high winds, buried under earthquake debris, burned out by wildfire, or suffocated in dust storms, some very alarming scenarios are not only possible but even, to a degree, likely. It’s worth considering how you can be prepared for events ranging from short-term emergencies to catastrophic events that could disrupt commerce and services for days, weeks, or months.
Even a passing emergency could require you to evacuate your home. Your absence might be brief, or it could extend for quite some time. At a bare minimum, you should always have an emergency kit in your car. This should contain items such as these:
• water (at least a gallon per person)
• space blanket(s)
• towel
• toilet paper
• flashlight
• battery-operated lamp
• fresh batteries to operate these tools
• iodine pills or a water filter, or both
• first-aid kit
• jackknife
• matches/butane lighters
• rope
• twine
• jumper cables
Stored in a safe and accessible place in the house, you should have a grab-and-go kit containing certain key items; for example:
• important papers
• government-issued identification
• pictures you would like not to lose
• cash
• credit card
• prescription drugs
• a pistol & ammunition (assuming you know how to use a gun safely)
You should never have to make a mad dash for these things. Here, for example, we have a reporter describing just such a frantic search. You shouldn’t be running around trying to grab things as a wildfire is bearing down on you or floodwaters are climbing the front steps. Anything that you absolutely have to take should already be packed, preferably in a locked metal box.
Your gas tank should always be pretty close to full. Some people store gasoline in a safe place on their property; keep gas cans full and away from sources of ignition.
In case of a protracted evacuation, you might also want to store some gear that can quickly be packed in your car. This might include a full set of camping gear — if your car isn’t large enough for you and your partner or your family to sleep in, it would be wise to store a tent near the vehicle. In addition to the items listed for your emergency kit and your grab-and-go bag, you would need supplies like these:
• camp stove and propane
• lighter or store of matches in a waterproof container
• lightweight camping dishes & cookware
• knives, spoons, forks
• drinking vessels
• can opener
• rope
• twine
• soap
• detergent (liquid) for washing dishes and hair
• toilet paper
• towel(s)
• toothbrushes
• aspirin
• antacids
• anti-diarrheal agent such as Imodium or Pepto-Bismol
• sleeping bags or blankets
• jackets
• rainwear
• hats
• day packs
• camping food
• pet food, packed & ready to go
• pet dishes
• medications for pets, if any
• collars and leashes for pets (take steps in advance to deal with pets during an emergency)
• evidence of dogs’ immunization
• if you carry a gun, extra ammunition
If, on the other hand, you did not have to evacuate but instead faced lengthy power or water outages or had to “shelter in place,” as the new turn of phrase has it, you would want to have your home supplied for a period of self-sufficiency. It would be good at least to have staple foods and various tools and supplies in place.
• rice, beans, canned foods
• flour and bread-baking ingredients
• extra pet food
• propane
• propane grill, camp stove, or both
• crank or battery-operated radio
• battery-run lamp
• extra batteries
• bottled water in carboys
• barterable items, such as cigarettes, ammunition, alcohol, and the like
• pistol or shotgun, with appropriate ammunition
• gasoline, safely stored
• extensive first-aid kit
• supply of prescriptions
• OTC pain-killers
• OTC cough, cold, and allergy medications
• a land-line phone — not one that operates on cable, which requires electric power
• generator (either a small one or a whole-house system)
• fuel to operate the generator
• functional vegetable garden
• if you have a large enough yard: chicken coop & hens
• iodine pills, a water filter, or both
• a supply of cash — at least $1,000 stashed in a safe place (check your homeowner’s insurance: many policies provide coverage for up to $1,000 of cash)
• tools such as a hammer, screwdrivers, saw, hatchet, wrench, box-knife, and shovel
• fire extinguisher
If you have a camper or an RV, remember that some such vehicles have a propane fridge, stove and even a generator, all of which could come in handy. Be sure to have enough fuel on hand to run the RV’s features.
These are not exhaustive lists. But at least they should give you a start on thinking about emergency preparedness. With the three-pronged threats of extreme weather events, hacking, and terrorism now part of our reality, we all should have an escape plan and a stay-at-home survival plan that will tide us over for several weeks.
