In a word: probably.
Yesterday, NPR ran a talk-show piece that went online with a “scare” headline: “Surgery Doesn’t Help Women with Early-Stage Breast Carcinoma.” In fact, the report doesn’t say you’re going to die if you have early stage breast cancer. In fact, it discusses DCIS, which is not known to be cancer at all.
And yes, for some women, surgery makes no difference in survival rates because some cases of DCIS, which has been described as a “pre-cancer,” never progress to an invasive stage.
However, an unknown percentage of DCIS incidences do convert to invasive cancer. We do not know what that percentage is, because a true randomized study (in which X number of women are randomly assigned to have no treatment and an equivalent number get surgery) would be wildly unethical. Knowing that a substantial risk is there — possibly in the vicinity of 80% — doctors are morally obliged to recommend surgical treatment.
The story reports that survival rates are noticeably improved among women who have intermediate and high-grade DCIS:
For the women who had cells that were closer on the continuum to invasive cancer — those with intermediate- or high-grade DCIS — surgery did provide a significant benefit. After 10 years, 98.6 percent of women with intermediate-grade DCIS and who had surgery had survived breast cancer, compared to 94.6 percent of women who didn’t have surgery. And with high-grade DCIS, 98.4 percent of those who had surgery survived, compared to 90.5 percent of those who didn’t.
My DCIS did contain intermediate and high-grade areas; fortunately, there was no necrosis, which is a marker that the DCIS is about to convert to invasive cancer. So it looks like I have a 98.4% chance of living another ten years.
The problem with these survival rates is that they don’t always distinguish between women who died of breast cancer and women who died of just anything. Some studies take the cause of death into account, and some vacuum up all mortality data. So one can find oneself with a basketful of apples and oranges and no way of knowing which is which.
Survival rates for early-stage breast cancers — I mean the real thing, not DCIS — are quite high. They’re not nearly 100%, but they’re well over 80%. Survival rates for DCIS that has been treated with lumpectomy + radiation + hormone blockers or with simple mastectomy approach 100% when causes other than metastasizing breast cancer are taken out of the equation.
To my mind, a serious problem is the widespread insistence on lumpectomy, which is not “just as effective” as mastectomy. Radiation treatment, tamoxifen, and AI’s are not minor things. Radiation causes some very unpleasant side effects, some of them long-term, and if the idea is to preserve a semblance of your natural breast, it’s a major FAIL. Radiation causes your scar to contract, so that you can end up significantly disfigured. Tamoxifen can cause uterine cancer and blood clots (leading to stroke and deep-vein thrombosis), and both tamoxifen and aromatase inhibitors can cause painful arthralgia. Only about 40% of women stay on AI’s for the entire five years that’s recommended, and the quit rate for tamoxifen is also pretty high.
As many as 50% of DCIS incidences never convert to invasive cancer. Hence it’s reasonable to argue that removing every one of them and performing mastectomies to get rid of it is overtreatment.
But I think that assertion may be debatable. If non-conversion rates really ARE as high as 50% (we do not know and have no ethical way to find out), then it means the rate of conversion TO invasive cancer is at least 50%; it may be significantly higher, possibly as much as 80%. Would you rather go through life boobless or would you prefer to run to the hospital every year for yet another mammogram (mammography also has side effects), possibly yet another biopsy, and worry constantly about what’s growing in your chest?